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ADRO: Harga Batu Bara Lesu, Laba Adaro Melesat...

Emiten pertambangan batu baraPT Adaro Energy Tbk. (ADRO)mampu mengantongi kenaikan laba bersih mencapai 52% di semester I-2019 secarayear on year(YoY) di tengah masih rendahnya harga baru bara dunia.
Berdasarkan data laporan keuangan ADRO, laba bersih tersebut tercatat sebesar US$ 296,85 juta atau setara dengan Rp 4,15 triliun (asumsi kurs Rp 14.000/US$), naik dari laba bersih periode yang sama tahun sebelumnya US$ 195,38 juta atau Rp 2,74 triliun.
Pencapaian kinerja laba tersebut terjadi seiring dengan pendapatan perusahaan yang naik 10,24% menjadi US$ 1,77 miliar atau sekitar Rp 24,85 triliun dari sebelumnya US$ 1,61 miliar.
Perusahaan juga mendapatkan pemasukan dari nilai bagian atas keuntungan neto ventura bersama senilai US$ 60,03 juta.
CEO Adaro Energy Garibaldi Thohir mengatakan peningkatan laba bersih ini didorong oleh strategiperusahaan yang berhasil menerapkan disiplin biaya untuk mempertahankan margin yang sehat di tengah tantangan makro dan ketidakpastian pasar batu bara global.
"Walaupun harus waspada terhadap perkembangan industri di tahun ini, kami masih optimistis terhadap fundamental pasar batu bara di jangka panjang,"katanya dalam keterangan resmi, Jumat (23/8/2019).
"Model bisnis kami terbukti tangguh dalam menghadapi siklikalitas[kondisi bisnis dan kondisi perekonomian]industri ini dan memungkinkan perusahaan untuk mengelola pasar di jangka pendek," kata Garibaldi.
Adaro, katanya, juga berkomitmen terhadap penciptaan nilai yang berkelanjutan bagi para pemangku kepentingan, yang juga meliputi kontribusi dalam bentuk royalti dan pajak kepada Pemerintah Indonesia.
Dari sisi EBITDA(laba sebelum bunga, pajak, depresiasi dan amortisasi) operasional Adaromencatat capaian sebesar US$691 juta atau naik17% dari sebelumnya US$593 jutadan mempertahankan margin EBITDA operasional yang tinggi padatingkat 39%.
"Hal ini sesuai dengan panduan EBITDAuntuk satu tahunyang berkisar US$1-1,2 miliar," tulis manajemen ADRO.
Laba inti perusahaan juga naik38% menjadi US$371juta, posisi keuangan tetap sehat dengansaldo kassebesar US$895juta. Adapun rasio utang bersihterhadap ekuitas dan utang bersih terhadap EBITDA operasional dalam 12 bulan terakhir masing-masing mencapai 0,09 kalidan 0,26 kali.
"Totalkontribusi kepada PemerintahIndonesiadalam bentukroyaltidan pajak penghasilanbadan mencapaitotal US$ 356juta pada semester I 2019," tulis manajemen.
Produksi Adaropada semester I-2019 naik 18%yoymenjadi28,47 metrik tondanpenjualan batu bara naik 21%yoymenjadi 28,77 metrik ton.
"Tingginya permintaan untuk batu baraAdaroselama periode ini dan kinerja operasi yang tinggi mendukung peningkatan tersebut. Hargajual rata-rata gabungan untuk batubara Adaro turun 9%yoydan turun3%qoq[kuartal ke kuartal]karena industribatu bara menghadapi berbagai tantangan yang mempengaruhi harga batubaraglobal."

China Ancam Bakal Balas Serangan Tarif AS Jika...

Chinamengancam bakal melakukan aksi balasan (retaliasi) jika Amerika Serikat (AS) terus melancarkan serangantarif terhadap produk impor asal Negeri Tirai Bambu itu. Terlebih,negosiasiuntuk mengakhiriperang dagangantara kedua negara masih dilakukan.
Di awal bulan ini, AS mengancam akan mengenakantarif terhadap produk impor asal China senilai US$300 miliar mulai 1 September mendatang. Artinya, jika berlaku, AS mengenakan tarif terhadap seluruh produk impor asal China.
Namun, Presiden AS Donald Trump akhirnya menunda rencana tersebut hingga pertengahan Desember untuk beberapa jenis barang seperti telepon seluler, laptop, dan barang konsumsi lainnya. Tujuannya, untuk meredam dampak kenaikan harga barang pada musim liburan.
"Meski AS menunda pengenaan tarif pada beberapa barang-barang China... jika AS mempersulit penolakan China dan mengenakan tarif baru, China akan terdorong untuk menerapkan aksi retaliasi," ujar Menteri Perdagangan China Gao Feng seperti dikutip dariReuters, Kamis (22/8).Feng berharap AS menghentikan segera serangan tarifnya. Menurut Feng, pengenaan tarif baru akan menyebabkan eskalasi perang dagang antara dua negara dengan perekonomian terbesar dunia itu.
Hinggakini, sambung ia,perwakilan dagang kedua negara terus berkomunikasi. Hal itu menjadi respons Feng saat ditanyakan soal kemungkinan Wakil Perdana Menteri China Li He terbang ke Washington untuk melanjutkan putaran berikutnya dari negosiasi kedua negara.
Lebih lanjut, saat ditanya apakah AS telah mengangkat isu Hong Kong dengan China saat negosiasi dagang, Feng mengingatkan pernyataan Trump sebelumnya yang menyatakan Hong Kong merupakan bagian China. Karenanya, intervensi AS tidak diperlukan. "Saya berharap AS memegang kata-katanya," tuturnya.
Akhir pekan lalu, Trump memperingatkan jika China menanggapi aksi demonstrasi di Hong Kong dengan kekerasan layaknya tragedi Tiananmen pada 1989, kesepakatan untuk mengakhiri perang dagang dengan AS akan sulit dicapai

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Daily Research - Easy stock guide

Indonesia Daily Focus Aug...

Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia
Daily Focus
Strategy Focus - 2020 state budget draft: Modest growth
2020 state budget draft: Modest growth2020 revenue is targeted to rise by +9.4% YoY to IDR2,222tr, while spending is targeted to grow by +8.0% YoY to IDR2,529tr. These single-digit growth targets are roughly in-line with nominal GDP growth. 2020 fiscal deficit is targeted at IDR307.2tr, representing -1.76% of GDP, which should be the lowest level in the past five years.
Revenue budget: Tax-driven revenue growthThe growth of 2020 total revenue budget of 9.4% is quite reasonable. However, the growth of its biggest component, i.e. total tax revenues at 13.3% YoY, seems rather ambitious, in our view. The government relies heavily on tax revenue, which contributes 84% to total state revenue. Tax revenue itself is targeted to reach IDR2,222tr in 2020, growing by +13.3% YoY, mainly driven by income tax revenue (+13.3% YoY) and VAT revenue (15.7% YoY).
Spending budget: Focus on developing human resourcesGovernment spending budget is in-line with its focus on developing human resources. Social budget is predicted to grow by 4.4% YoY to boost purchasing power. The government has allocated generous health budget of IDR132tr (+13.0% YoY). More specifically, for the National Health Insurance (JKN), the government almost doubled it to IDR49tr from IDR 27tr in 2019 outlook.
Maintain our preference for domestic-play stocksGiven the combination of potentially continuing foreign outflow from Indonesian equities, as a result of foreign investors’ risk-off mode, and 2020 state budget’s focus on improving the quality of Indonesian manpower through higher health and social assistance budgets, we prefer defensive domestic-play stocks with decent earnings growth. We maintain our Top 8 Picks, which are ICBP, INDF, KINO, KLBF, MAPI, UNVR, MDKA, and BBCA. Overall, our August Top Picks generated a return of +5.3% MTD (vs. JCI of -2.4% MTD).

Analysis - Easy stock guide

Construction - 2020 state...

Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Sector UpdateConstruction - 2020 state infra budget draft: key issues remain in question by Joshua Michael (joshua.michael@miraeasset.co.id)Aug 23, 2019
Construction - 2020 state infra budget draft: key issues remain in question
Last Friday, the government announced 2020 state infra budget draft totaled at IDR419.2tr, 4.9% higher than 2019 outlook but 0.3% lower than 2019 draft. This draft hasn’t incorporated any assumptions on capital city relocation. Our takes are as follows.
More emphasize on housing and water resources sector..The Ministry of Public Works and People’s Housing’s (KemenPUPR) 2020 budget soars by 20.9%/15.3%, vs. 2019 outlook/draft, respectively, and its proportion to total infra budget increased from 24% in 2019 to 28% in 2020. We notice a narrowing proportion of roads and bridges sector, while both housing and water resources sectors are overweighed. Correspondingly, housing finance liquidity facility (FLPP) rises to IDR9tr. We view this decision reasonable as housing and water resources sectors are still far from 2015-19 national target, unlike roads and bridges sector. Hence, in 2020, the government will emphasize more on addressing housing backlog and water resources, including dam development, flood mitigation, coast guard, and drinking water supply system (SPAM).
..which will benefit WIKA, PTPP and ADHI (in sequence)We believe that WIKA (Buy/TP IDR3,000) and PTPP (Not rated) as the members of housing holding will be the main beneficiaries of housing development, while drinking water supply system development will benefit ADHI (Buy/TP IDR1,800) and PTPP. ADHI has SPAM investment projects in Mandalika and Dumai, while PTPP is currently working on SPAM Juanda, which will become the largest SPAM in Indonesia with capacity of 10,000 lps, adding up to its SPAM portfolio to five.
Same budget priority to Kemenhub as last yearThe Ministry of Transportation’s (Kemenhub) budget hikes by 7.8% and 1.3%, vs. 2019 outlook and draft, respectively, and its proportion to total infra budget is maintained at 9%. We consider this as good news for ADHI, which has the most significant exposure to Kemenhub’s infra projects than its peers. Given the same budget priority for Kemenhub as last year, we think Jabodebek LRT Phase II is likely to be tendered in 2020. However, we haven’t seen any budget allocation for State Capital Participation (PMN) in 2020. State Capital Participation had integral contribution to Jabodebek LRT Phase I funding, in which KAI and ADHI received IDR7.6tr and IDR1.4tr, respectively, for its construction.
Discouraging VGF, LMAN and FPP budgetDue to the estimated infra funding gap of 4.7%-5.1% (as studied by Asian Development Bank in 2017), post-2019 infra development will rely on Public Private Partnership (KPBU), which, in our opinion, needs ample government support from Viability Gap Fund (for infra projects with insufficient IRR) and State Asset Management Agency (LMAN), who provides bailout fund for land acquisition for infra projects, especially toll road constructions. However, 2020 VGF budget is kept low at IDR800bn. Even worse, LMAN budget falls from IDR22tr in 2019 to IDR10.5tr in 2020. Similarly, budget for Project Development Facility (FPP), which provides project preparation and transaction-related technical assistance, shrinks by 30% from IDR177bn in 2019 to IDR124bn in 2020.
Key issues remain in question, maintain NEUTRAL on the sectorThe government highlighted three challenges regarding infra development, which we deem critical for the sector: 1) funding capacity, related to difficulties in attracting private investment; 2) administrative issues, including land acquisition; and, 3) project planning, preparation, and monitoring. Despite improvements in KemenPUPR’s and Kemenhub’s budget, we’re afraid that with lack of governmental support in the form of PMN, VGF, LMAN, and FPP, the planned development will be challenging. Hence, without any significant catalysts, we believe project execution will remain uncertain and, consequently, maintain our NEUTRAL stance on the sector.