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CAKK: Kuartal III/2019, Laba Cahayaputra Asa K...

PT Cahayaputra Asa Keramik Tbk. membukukan pertumbuhan pendapatan bersih dua digit hingga kuartal III/2019. Meski demikian, laba bersih produsen keramik itu masih tertekan pada periode tersebut.Berdasarkan laporan keuangan per 30 September 2019, emiten bersandi saham CAKK ini mencetak pendapatan bersih sebesar Rp222,97 miliar atau tumbuh 17,40% secara tahunan. Pada periode 9 bulan ini, retur dan potongan penjualan meningkat 19,12%menjadi Rp811,98 miliar.Perusahaan mampu menjaga kenaikan beban pokok pendapatan di level 6,86%. Begitu pula, kenaikan beban penjualan terjaga di level 10,64%.Namun, beban umum dan administrasi meningkat 54,51% menjadi Rp12,67 miliar, serta beban pajak penghasilan Rp1,69 miliar.Dari itu, CAKK mengantongi laba bersih sebesar Rp6,12 miliar, turun 60,87% dibandingkan dengan laba per 30 September 2018 sebesar Rp15,64 miliar.Jumlah aset perseroan sebesar Rp333,64 miliar per 30 September 2019, naik 1,44% dibandingkan dengan jumlah aset per 31 Desember 2018 sebesar Rp328,89 miliar. Adapun, jumlah liabilitas sebesar Rp106,64 miliar dan ekuitas Rp227 miliar.

Tarif Baru Cukai Rokok (CHT) Mulai Berlaku Awa...

Harga rokok di hampir semua seluruh golongan dipastikan mengalami kenaikan pada awal 2020.Hal ini merupakan implikasi dari penerapan Peraturan Menteri Keuangan No.152/ PMK.04/2019 tentang Tarif Cukai Hasil Tembakau (CHT) yang telah diundangkan pada Senin (21/10/2019).Dalam beleid yang diterimaBisnis.com, otoritas fiskal menyebutkan bahwa keputusan untuk menaikan tarif di hampir semua golongan rokok tersebut mempertimbangkan semua aspek termasuk memperhitungkan dampak dan keadilannya bagi masyarakat.Kepala Sub Direktorat Publikasi dan Komunikasi Direktorat Jenderal Bea dan Cukai Deni Surjantoro membenarkan soal keberadaan beleid cukai rokok itu. Dia mengatakan, dengan terbitnya PMK tersebut, kenaikan tarif rata-rata sebesar 23% dan harga jual eceran (HJE) sebesar 35% resmi berlaku pada awal tahun depan.“Betul [untuk semua jenis rokok], tarif rata-rata 23% dan HJE rata-rata 35%,” ungkap Deni, Selasa (22/10/2019).Jika merunut lampiran ketentuan tersebut, kenaikan tarif untuk sigaret kretek mesin (SKM) golongan I yang akan berlaku sebesar Rp740 atau naik 25,4% dari tarif tahun lalu sebesar Rp590, sigaret putih mesin (SPM) untuk golongan I menjadi Rp790 atau naik 26,4% dari Rp625, sedangkan untuk sigaret kretek tangan (SKT), kenaikan SKT golongan I mencapai 16,4% per batang.Adapun untuk jenis rokok yang mengalami kenaikan harga jual eceran tertinggi terjadi di sigaret putih mesin (SPM) yang naik sebesar 58,4% atau dari Rp1.1130 per batang menjadi Rp1.790 per batang dan sigaret kretek mesin (SKM) naik sebesar 51,7% atau dari Rp1.120 menjadi Rp1.700 per batang.Meski menaikkan hampir sebagian besar tarif cukai hasil tembakau, melalui PMK No.152/2019 pemerintah juga memastikan roadmap simplifikasi tarif yang sebelumnya tercantum dalam PMK No.146/2017 resmi ditiadakan. Hal ini juga mengakhiri semua spekulasi soal rencana pemerintah untuk melanjutkanroadmaptersebut.Sebelumnya, pemerintah telah memutuskan untuk menaikan tarif cukai hasil tembakau (CHT) sebesar 23% dan HJE sebesar 35% pada 2020.Kenaikan tarif dan HJE tersebut didasarkan oleh adanya peningkatan produksi rokok dan prevalensi perokok secara global dari 32,8% menjadi 33,8%. Perokok pada usia anak dan remaja juga mengalami peningkatan dari 7,2% menjadi 9,1%, demikian halnya untuk perokok perempuan dari 1,3% menjadi 4,8%.

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Indonesia Daily Focus Oct...

Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia
Daily Focus
UNVR – Overshadowed by last year’s high base
UNVR’s 9M19 revenue: Slightly below estimate For 3Q19, Unilever Indonesia (UNVR IJ) posted revenue of IDR10.9tr (+5.4% YoY; +1% QoQ), with cumulative 9M19 revenue reaching IDR32.4tr (+2.6% YoY). We deem UNVR’s 9M19 revenue slightly below our estimates. Furthermore, UNVR’s 9M19 home and personal care (HPC) division sales grew by 4.5% YoY, while its food and refreshments (FR) division sales declined by 1.2% YoY. We attribute the sales decline at the FR division to the absence of Spreads business this year. As UNVR’s 9M19 FR division sales growth was below our FY19 growth estimate, we cut our FR sales growth assumption to just 1.6% YoY for FY19, while we leave our HPC sales growth assumption unchanged. We currently estimate that UNVR’s FY19 and FY20 revenue will grow by 3.9% YoY and 5.8% YoY, respectively.
UNVR’s 9M19 NP drops by 24.4% YoY, but not as bad as it seems From a profitability perspective, UNVR’s 3Q19 gross and operating margin expanded YoY, but fell QoQ (given higher manufacturing-overhead costs). However, net profit margin declined on both a YoY and QoQ basis. Note that UNVR had additional net profit of IDR2.1tr in 3Q18 from divesting its Spreads category, which boosted its net profit last year. As for the bottom line, UNVR booked 3Q19 net profit of IDR1.8tr (-51.9% YoY, -7% QoQ), with cumulative 9M19 net profit of IDR5.5tr (-24.4% YoY), achieving a run-rate of 76.2% against our full-year estimate (considered slightly above our estimate, due to better-than-expected margin) and 74.2% against consensus’ full-year estimate (broadly in-line). We revised our estimates on UNVR’s margins upward (due to lower-than-expected raw-material costs), which resulted in our higher net profit forecast.
Maintain Hold with higher TP of IDR44,700We maintain our Hold recommendation on UNVR with a higher TP of IDR44,700 (previous TP: IDR43,500), which we arrived at by applying a forward P/E of 46.2x (five-year mean P/E) to our 2019F EPS.

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Tobacco - Ministry of Fin...

Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Sector UpdateTobacco - Ministry of Finance’s decree on excise tax released by Christine Natasya (natasya@miraeasset.co.id)Oct 23, 2019
Tobacco - Ministry of Finance’s decree on excise tax released
The Ministry of Finance has released a decree (Peraturan Menteri Keuangan/PMK) on the 2020 cigarette excise tax. The PMK, which will be effectively applied to all cigarette players in January 2020, states that excise ribbons bought in 2019 can be used until February 2020. We deem the excise tax per stick increase still in line with our expectation. In contrast, we think that the new minimum retail price (harga jual eceran/HJE) regulation, which exceeds our initial assumption, will urge cigarette producers to increase their ASPs accordingly. Hence, in line with the government’s aim to curb cigarette consumption, we believe sales volume decline will continue, especially among lower-income smokers, although downside risk to margins may not be as severe as we expected.
Top-tier SKM and SPM producers’ excise tax per stick to grow by 25% and 26.4% YoY, respectivelyAccording to the latest PMK, which was constituted on October 21st 2019, the excise tax per stick for the highest tier of machine-made cigarette (SKM) producers will increase by 25% (vs. our previous assumption of 23%) and white cigarette (SPM) excise tax per stick to grow by 26.4% (vs. our assumption of 25%). We believe that the excise tax per stick increases are still in line with expectations but still bring a rather negative impact on the cigarette players’ overall costs as higher excise rate means less flexibility for companies to expand in other expenses (including RD, professional fees and advertising expenses). Meanwhile, passing on costs to consumers could dampen their market share and even the overall industry’s sales volume.
Top-tier SKT producers’ excise tax per stick to rise higher than our expectationGiven that the government would likely seek to protect tobacco farmers, we previously projected the excise tax per stick for highest-tier SKT producers to grow by 10% for 2020. In fact, in the latest PMK, the highest-tier SKT will grow by 16.4%. Meanwhile, the excise tax per stick for second-tier SKT producers (companies with production of less than 2bn sticks) will rise by 11%, leaving a huge gap with the biggest players. We believe this will hurt HMSP more than GGRM, as GGRM’s SKM makes up the lion’s share of its revenue (around 91%).
Minimum retail prices to hike by about 39% on simple averageUnder the new decree, the highest-tier producers’ minimum retail price (HJE) for SKM will be IDR1,700 (from IDR1,120), white cigarettes’ minimum retail price will be IDR1,790 (from IDR790), and hand-rolled (SKT) will be IDR1,460 (from IDR1,260). We believe this new HJE regulation will force players to increase all of their ASPs as the retail sale price must not be lower than the applicable retail sale price set by the PMK (previously, a maximum discount of 15% to the minimum retail price suggested by government was allowed). According to our observations, currently, HMSP’s lower-priced products, such as Magnum Mild, Philip Morris Bold, and Marlboro Filter Black, range between IDR900-IDR1,200/stick at the retailers, and this will require them to hike ASPs by 42-89%. Meanwhile, GGRM’s Surya Pro and Surya Pro Mild, which are priced at IDR950-IDR1,000/stick in retail spaces, can face a similar issue due to price increases. Hence, we believe the overall industry’s sales volume may possibly decline to 10% YoY in 2020.
Maintain Underweight on the sectorWe believe that a sales volume decline in the sector is in the cards as selling prices are likely to increase significantly, especially for white cigarettes (SPM), which we think will hurt HMSP the most. We maintain Underweight on the sector.