Daily Analysis research VOD
Macro update - August CCI declined to lowest point since March
  • research
  • NO 10
  • HIT 184
  • 12-Sep-2018
Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Macro Update
Macro update - August CCI declined to lowest point since March by Mangesti Diah Sulistiani (mangesti@miraeasset.co.id)
Sep 12, 2018

August CCI declined on both a monthly and yearly basis  
The headline consumer confidence index (CCI) for the month of August declined by 3.2pt to 121.6pt (from 124.8pt in July; -2.6% MoM), according to a Bank Indonesia (BI) survey. August CCI, which missed the consensus estimate (124pt), touched the same YTD low as that recorded in March, when CCI was also 121.6pt (see Table 1). Headline CCI also declined on a YoY basis, coming in 0.3% lower than the August 2017 figure (121.9pt). It marked the second consecutive month of sluggish CCI growth (see Figure 1), with the weakness in August mainly coming from (1) consumers’ weakening perception of current economic conditions and (2) consumers’ weakening optimism on economic conditions ahead. The headline current economic conditions index (CECI) declined 5.0% MoM to 109.2pt (from 115.0pt in July), and also fell 1.2% on a YoY basis (from 110.6pt in August 2017). The consumer expectations index (CEI) declined 0.6% MoM to 133.9pt (from 134.7pt in July), but increased 0.6% YoY (vs. 133.2pt in August 2017).

Less upbeat on current economic conditions 
Consumers perceive current economic conditions to be less vigorous compared to the previous six months, with all components of the CECI (durable goods purchasing index, current income conditions, and current employment conditions) declining (see Figure 3). Consumers’ perception of current income conditions declined 5.6% MoM ( 0.9% YoY), and the durable goods purchasing index declined to a similar extent ( 5.9% MoM), despite picking up 2.6% YoY. Consumers’ perceptions of employment conditions/job availability also fell 3.0% MoM (-5.9% YoY). Nevertheless, even though consumer confidence softened for two straight months, we note that consumers’ average propensity to consume (APC) ratio slightly increased to 66.9% (vs. 66.7% in July), and loan repayments (debt service to income ratio) also rose to 13.8% (vs. 13.4% in July). Meanwhile, the savings/deposits-to-income ratio declined to 19.3% (vs. 19.9% in July). 

Less optimistic on economic conditions ahead
Consumers are less optimistic on economic conditions for the next six months compared to current conditions. Specifically, they anticipate less vigorous income conditions and business activities for the next six months. However, they expect employment conditions to be better in the upcoming six months. 

Consumers expect relatively stable inflationary pressure in the next three to six months
According to the survey, consumers expect inflationary pressure in the next three months (to November) to be relatively stable, as they have positive perceptions about the sufficiency of goods and services as well as distribution improvements. As for the next six months (to February 2019), consumers expect inflationary pressure to lessen with the end of the seasonal demand spike around Christmas/New Year.

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